WASHINGTON D.C. — A classified CIA intelligence assessment, reportedly briefed to President Donald Trump just days before the capture of Nicolás Maduro, is being identified as the primary catalyst for the administration’s decision to sideline Venezuela’s democratic opposition. The report, first revealed by The Wall Street Journal, warned that installing Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado would lead to a “rapid collapse” of the Venezuelan state.
According to the leaked analysis, the CIA concluded that the democratic opposition, led by Machado and Edmundo González, lacks the “entrenched authority” required to command Venezuela’s military, security services, and sprawling drug-trafficking networks.
The “Day-After” Grim Forecast
The intelligence community’s “day-after” scenarios argued that only members of the Chavista “old guard” could prevent a civil war or total anarchy. The assessment specifically identified Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as the figure best positioned to maintain short-term stability due to her deep bureaucratic ties and professional experience within the state-run oil industry.
“I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader if she doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within the country,” Trump stated Saturday, referring to Machado. “She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.”
The “Oil-First” Strategy
The White House has increasingly framed the snub as a “realistic pivot.” By backing Rodríguez, the U.S. aims to secure immediate cooperation from the military to protect infrastructure. Trump has explicitly stated his intention for the U.S. to “run” Venezuela’s oil industry, using American firms to rebuild shattered facilities and recoup lost billions.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that U.S. control over oil shipments would serve as the ultimate leverage over Rodríguez, who was sworn in early Monday. Meanwhile, insiders suggest a more personal friction: reports indicate Trump was allegedly “irritated” that Machado accepted the Nobel Peace Prize, which some in his circle believed she should have deferred to the President.
Machado’s Response: Defiance and Graciousness
Despite the political blow, Machado told Fox News on Monday that she is “grateful” for Trump’s “courageous vision” in toppling Maduro. However, she offered a blistering critique of the new U.S.-backed interim president, labeling Delcy Rodríguez an “architect of torture” and a primary liaison to Russia, China, and Iran.
Machado has vowed to return to Venezuela as soon as possible, insisting that the “will of the people” cannot be ignored for long in favor of administrative stability.
