Bitcoin’s sell-off has intensified over the past year, yet long-term conviction among some investors remains intact despite worsening sentiment and mounting macro pressure.
Bitcoin is down roughly 17% over the past 12 months and more than 22% in the last three months, struggling to find sustained momentum regardless of shifting political, economic, or geopolitical headlines. Investor sentiment has fallen to levels not seen in years.
The weakness has been driven by a steady stream of global shocks. Markets have repeatedly repriced Bitcoin in response to geopolitical tensions, tariff risks, and economic uncertainty, prompting investors to trim exposure to risk assets during periods of stress.
Short-term price action, however, does not alter Bitcoin’s core investment thesis for long-term holders. Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin’s supply cannot be expanded at will, and its issuance becomes more constrained every four years through scheduled halvings.
As mining rewards decline over time, newly produced Bitcoin becomes increasingly expensive to generate, reinforcing scarcity. Supporters argue that today’s prices may look cheap in hindsight as future supply tightens further.
This supply-driven narrative continues to anchor long-term bullish expectations, even as near-term performance remains disappointing.
Still, one structural risk looms larger than others. Advances in quantum computing could eventually threaten Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, potentially allowing malicious actors to compromise wallets.
That risk, while serious, is not viewed as insurmountable. Bitcoin developers are already evaluating mitigation strategies, and the network can evolve its security framework if needed. Any such threat is widely seen as years away rather than imminent.
For long-term investors, the calculation remains asymmetric. Bitcoin can remain volatile and under pressure in the short term, but its long-term upside is tied to fixed supply dynamics, while its most serious downside risks appear technically manageable.
That imbalance is why some buyers continue to accumulate Bitcoin even as prices slide and sentiment deteriorates.
