Ukraine’s prospects on the battlefield appear increasingly limited as Russian forces continue to make slow but steady gains, despite the heavy costs they incur. Kyiv has secured a crucial €90bn loan from the European Union that will allow it to sustain its current level of defence until late 2027, but the funding is not expected to alter the overall balance of the war.
Russia has held the initiative on land since 2024, advancing incrementally by committing large numbers of troops to the front. By the end of November 2025, Russian forces were advancing at an average of 176 square miles a month, at an estimated cost of 382,000 killed and wounded.
US officials involved in recent peace talks have argued that Ukraine is likely to lose the remaining 22% of Donetsk province, including the key cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. At the current pace, such an advance would take at least a year and likely longer, particularly given the urban terrain, and could cost Russia a further 400,000 casualties or more. Ukrainian leaders have indicated they are prepared to impose such losses.
Even so, questions persist over Ukraine’s strategy and the durability of its frontline. In the past six months, Ukrainian defences have broken through on three occasions: east of Dobropillia in Donetsk in August, north of Kupiansk in Kharkiv region in late summer and early autumn, and east of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia in November. In each case, exhausted Ukrainian units were unable to halt small Russian infiltration groups that evaded drone surveillance. Some incursions were later reversed, and losses in Zaporizhzhia were limited to around six miles, but the episodes highlighted the strain on Ukrainian infantry.
Analysts estimate Russia continues to recruit about 30,000 troops a month, enough to replace current losses but not to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Ukraine’s recruitment rate is lower, with claims of 27,000 a month disputed by other reports suggesting a much smaller figure. Casualties on the Ukrainian side are believed to be lower than Russia’s, possibly around 10,000 a month, with more wounded than killed.
Critics within Ukraine argue that the heavy use of counterattacks over the past two years, including an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024 and sustained fighting around the contested town of Pokrovsk, has depleted reserves. Some senior veterans say Ukraine now lacks the capacity for surprise operations on land and should focus on rebuilding forces through a period of dynamic defence.
With fighting largely deadlocked on the ground, Kyiv has increasingly turned to economic pressure. While Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Ukrainian forces have struck Russian oil refineries and targeted tanker fleets used to bypass sanctions. Oil tax revenues, a key source of income for Moscow, fell by 34% in November. Despite ongoing strikes, civilian morale in Ukraine appears largely intact.
Politically, attention has turned to Washington, where developments in the White House could shape the conflict’s next phase. There are concerns that a breakdown in relations could affect intelligence sharing if Kyiv refuses territorial concessions, though a complete halt to US arms sales is seen as unlikely. For now, Ukraine’s most realistic option is to hold Russian forces near their current positions and wait for circumstances to change, even as Moscow sees little incentive to stop fighting while negotiations remain open.
