A new forecast from Brazil’s largest exchange is forcing Wall Street to rethink how far institutional capital is prepared to go.
Bitcoin was trading near $90,700 on Friday as a new institutional forecast from Latin America began circulating across global trading desks. The report, released by Mercado Bitcoin, projects that the cryptocurrency’s market value will more than double by the end of 2026, pushing Bitcoin toward a share of global value normally reserved for gold.
The São Paulo-based exchange, one of the largest in the region, said its valuation framework places Bitcoin on a trajectory to reach roughly 14% of gold’s total market capitalization. That projection implies a dramatic re-pricing of the asset as pension funds, ETFs, and global liquidity pools increasingly treat bitcoin as a long-term store of value rather than a speculative trade.
The model behind the forecast was developed with researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles, applying a total addressable market methodology that compares Bitcoin’s potential to the trillions locked inside physical gold. In the current cycle, that shift is no longer theoretical. It is already being expressed through ETF flows, custody balances, and balance-sheet positioning by institutions.
Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States now hold $116.86 billion in net assets, according to Mercado Bitcoin’s analysis, equivalent to nearly 6.5% of bitcoin’s total market capitalization. Those holdings have effectively converted a volatile digital asset into a regulated investment vehicle for some of the world’s largest pools of capital.
As those vehicles continue to absorb supply, the structure of the market itself is changing.
The moment ETFs began to absorb the float
The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs has quietly altered the liquidity profile of the entire market. Every inflow represents coins removed from free circulation and placed inside long-term custodial vaults run by regulated financial institutions.
Mercado Bitcoin’s data shows ETF demand now rivals daily mining output, meaning a growing share of newly available bitcoin is being locked away by funds designed for multi-year holding. That dynamic has compressed available supply just as global risk appetite has begun to rotate back into digital assets following easing financial conditions in several major economies.
At current prices near $90,700, even small shifts in institutional allocation produce outsized effects on the order books. Traders across Asia and the U.S. have reported thinner liquidity and sharper price reactions around ETF subscription windows, reinforcing the idea that bitcoin’s marginal buyer is no longer retail.
How stablecoins became the plumbing of global crypto liquidity
The report also points to stablecoins as the hidden engine behind the next phase of crypto growth. Mercado Bitcoin estimates that stablecoin market capitalization could reach $500 billion by the end of the year, up from roughly $311.7 billion based on CoinGecko data.
That expansion reflects a structural change in how money moves through crypto markets. Stablecoins are no longer just trading pairs on exchanges. They are increasingly used for cross-border payments, corporate settlements, and treasury operations, particularly in emerging markets where access to U.S. dollars is limited.
Regulation has accelerated that trend. The passage of the GENIUS Act in the United States has given issuers and institutions a legal framework to operate within, encouraging banks and funds to treat stablecoin reserves more like regulated financial products than experimental tokens. As more capital flows into these dollar-backed instruments, it creates deeper pools of liquidity that support larger and more stable crypto markets.
Why XRP and Solana funds are pulling in the next wave of capital
While bitcoin remains the anchor of institutional crypto exposure, Mercado Bitcoin’s forecast shows that the next wave of ETF growth is moving into large-cap altcoins.
XRP-linked ETFs now hold $1.47 billion in assets, about 1.16% of the token’s total market capitalization, according to data from SosoValue. Those funds have recorded steady inflows since mid-November, signaling sustained demand rather than one-off speculative positioning.
Solana funds have crossed the $1 billion mark as well, now accounting for roughly 1.43% of SOL’s circulating market value. Mercado Bitcoin projects that altcoin ETFs could reach $10 billion in assets this year, with XRP and Solana expected to capture nearly 80% of those inflows.
The appeal for institutions lies in liquidity, network activity, and the growing ecosystem of applications tied to these blockchains. For fund managers, these ETFs offer exposure to faster-growing segments of the crypto economy without the custody and compliance burdens of direct token ownership.
Where tokenized assets and AI markets are converging
Beyond spot and ETF markets, the report highlights the rise of tokenized real-world assets as another catalyst for institutional adoption. Mercado Bitcoin estimates that the sector could exceed $54 billion in value, representing growth of more than 200% as firms such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton expand their tokenized fund offerings.
These products allow traditional securities to trade on blockchain rails, shortening settlement times and increasing transparency for large investors. The infrastructure supporting them increasingly overlaps with that of stablecoins and ETFs, creating a single, integrated financial layer built on crypto technology.
The exchange also expects prediction markets and blockchain-based AI agents to attract significant capital, projecting that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket could see up to $20 billion in inflows by year-end. That convergence of data, liquidity, and automated decision-making is beginning to reshape how capital moves through digital markets.
For now, all of those currents feed back into bitcoin.
As ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenized assets grow, they all require bitcoin as the reserve asset, settlement layer, or benchmark against which value is measured. Mercado Bitcoin’s forecast suggests that this expanding institutional web is what could push the cryptocurrency into a new valuation regime by 2026.
