Bitcoin is signaling one of the steepest statistical discounts in history, trading roughly 35% below its long-term implied fair value. Analysts warn this “largest pricing error” could trigger sharp mean-reversion over the coming months.
David, a managing director and crypto analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin’s current spot price near $79,000 sits far below its 15-year power-law fair value of $122,425. He calls this a “statistical displacement the market is ignoring,” emphasizing that every Bitcoin’s production requires real energy, creating a natural “thermodynamic floor” for prices.
Historical backtests show that past extreme deviations always corrected within 12 months, yielding strong returns. Based on these trends, projections suggest Bitcoin could reach $113,000 by June 2026, $145,000 by October, and $162,000 by early 2027.
Retail sentiment remains extremely bearish despite high chatter levels, while macro investors like Raoul Pal argue Bitcoin is deeply undervalued relative to global liquidity trends. Pal notes that the market discount reflects timing rather than weak demand, with upside potential if liquidity conditions improve.
