A primary Polymarket account that successfully leveraged a $32,000 position into a $436,000 windfall following the capture of Nicolás Maduro has been deactivated. The sudden disappearance of account “0x31a56e” on January 8, 2026, has ignited an industry-wide debate over informational advantages and the integrity of decentralized prediction protocols.
Strategic Conviction or Information Leak?
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain first flagged the activity on December 27, 2025, noting that the newly created wallet began building a hyper-focused portfolio. Unlike typical market speculators, this user only engaged in contracts directly linked to U.S. intervention in Venezuela.
The trader’s timing was precise: they accumulated significant “Yes” shares in Maduro’s ouster while the market assigned the event a probability of less than 10%. Just hours before U.S. special forces executed the capture in Caracas, the trader completed their final purchase. Following the verification of the arrest, the contracts paid out $1 per share, netting a total profit exceeding 1,200%.+2
Federal Scrutiny and the Torres Bill
The incident has served as the catalyst for the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, introduced by Representative Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) this week. The legislation seeks to formalize a ban on federal officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees participating in prediction markets where they may possess non-public intelligence.+1
“Malevolent actors could use prediction markets to manipulate the government, and those same actors could use the government to manipulate the market,” Torres stated, characterizing the current lack of oversight as “the very definition of corruption.”
Platform Response and Data Privacy
As of Thursday, the public page for the account returns a dead link. While Polymarket has not officially commented on whether the deactivation was a platform-led ban or a user-initiated deletion, the platform’s terms do allow users to request data removal under privacy protocols.
The funds, totaling approximately $437,800 in USDC, were moved off the Polygon blockchain to private addresses shortly after the payout, according to on-chain data. The case remains a focal point for regulators as they determine if prediction markets require the same enforcement standards as traditional stock exchanges.
