XRP ETFs recorded their largest single-day outflow on January 20, 2026, as $53.32 million exited the funds, raising new doubts about whether Standard Chartered’s $8 XRP price target for 2026 remains realistic.
The redemptions were led almost entirely by Grayscale’s GXRP fund, which saw $55.39 million in outflows, while Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ posted modest inflows of $2.07 million. Other issuers, including Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares, reported flat flows.
The outflow occurred during a broader risk-off move across crypto markets. That same day, Bitcoin ETFs lost $426 million, Ethereum ETFs shed $230 million, and total weekly outflows from crypto investment products reached $1.73 billion, the largest exodus since mid-November 2025.
Despite the headline figure, the broader ETF picture remains mixed. XRP ETFs have still attracted more than $1.2 billion in cumulative inflows since launching in November 2025, and inflows resumed within days of the January 20 selloff.
From January 21 to 23, roughly $12.68 million flowed back into XRP ETFs, with Bitwise acting as a stabilizing force. Total assets under management now stand near $1.35 billion, suggesting the event may have been a one-time de-risking move rather than a sustained institutional exit.
XRP’s price briefly fell from above $2.00 to around $1.80 following the outflows before stabilizing in the $1.85 to $1.90 range. The recovery mirrored earlier behavior after a smaller ETF outflow on January 7, which markets quickly absorbed.
Standard Chartered’s $8 XRP forecast, issued by digital assets research head Geoffrey Kendrick, assumes $4 billion to $8 billion in cumulative ETF inflows by late 2026. At current levels, XRP ETFs are still well short of that threshold.
Kendrick’s bullish case rests on three pillars: regulatory clarity following the conclusion of Ripple’s SEC case in 2025, sustained ETF-driven demand, and a sharp decline in XRP supply held on exchanges. Exchange balances fell roughly 60% in 2025, tightening available liquidity.
The bearish case centers on execution risk. ETF inflows have yet to show consistency at the scale required, and repeated macro-driven outflows could undermine long-term accumulation. XRP’s price has also shown weak correlation with institutional flows, falling even during periods of strong ETF demand.
Competition from stablecoins, central bank digital currencies, and larger smart contract platforms adds further uncertainty, potentially limiting XRP’s long-term value capture despite its efficiency in cross-border payments.
Looking ahead, analysts see a wide range of outcomes. A bullish scenario could push XRP toward $3 to $4 if ETF inflows stabilize and macro conditions improve. A base case places XRP between $2 and $3, while a bearish outlook sees the token retesting support near $1.70 if outflows persist.
For now, the $53 million ETF outflow does not invalidate the $8 target, but it highlights how dependent that forecast is on sustained institutional demand and favorable macro conditions.
